Topical Luncheon 2
1 August 2016
Cognitive Bias (CB), in its many manifestations, is the major cause of geotechnical overestimation and faulty probability forecasts in petroleum geoscience. Companies that routinely utilize disciplined methods of Risk Analysis reduce CB and tend to deliver on their E&P promises.
Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman and others have made scientists much more aware of the dangers that CB pose for the practice of objective, reliable science. However, CB remains a problem in public-sector science because routine E&P organizational and economic pressures are less active within academic/ governmental organizations.
Nobel laureate Richard Feynman recognized (1974) the danger of CB: “the first principle is that you must not fool yourself – and you are the easiest person to fool.” Feynman knew that dedicated practice of the Scientific Method is the key to elimination of CB.